Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.029433 0.033486 0.037928 0.043162 0.049167 0.055852 0.063867
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.022607 0.027984 0.034419 0.042714 0.053159 0.065921 0.082769
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.019533 0.025589 0.033284 0.043827 0.057979 0.076426 0.102477
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.016835 0.023079 0.031402 0.043384 0.060324 0.083608 0.118369
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.015408 0.021978 0.031111 0.044847 0.065181 0.094481 0.140461
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.013417 0.019798 0.028993 0.043350 0.065466 0.098667 0.153086
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.011994 0.018252 0.027571 0.042631 0.066693 0.104210 0.168240
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.010579 0.016551 0.025709 0.040974 0.066185 0.106872 0.178921
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.010079 0.016209 0.025889 0.042534 0.070954 0.118437 0.205725
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.009625 0.015884 0.026044 0.044034 0.075735 0.130477 0.234765
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.009211 0.015577 0.026185 0.045497 0.080566 0.143066 0.266287
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.008532 0.014750 0.025359 0.045169 0.082138 0.149947 0.287905
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.007889 0.013942 0.024518 0.044772 0.083625 0.156992 0.311091
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007311 0.013199 0.023726 0.044388 0.085104 0.164210 0.335645
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.007007 0.012925 0.023753 0.045543 0.089667 0.177913 0.375366
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006520 0.012263 0.022994 0.045082 0.090933 0.185092 0.402044
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.006320 0.012130 0.023224 0.046605 0.096417 0.201587 0.451499
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.005784 0.011293 0.022007 0.045046 0.095226 0.203715 0.468422
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.005387 0.010697 0.021217 0.044297 0.095688 0.209466 0.494560
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.004926 0.009934 0.020025 0.042571 0.093804 0.209740 0.507460
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.004828 0.009913 0.020357 0.044196 0.099656 0.228392 0.568597
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.004727 0.009875 0.020650 0.045759 0.105531 0.247773 0.634399
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.004625 0.009827 0.020916 0.047283 0.111476 0.268017 0.705452